Fetal Age Determination Through Biparietal Diameter: A Simple Method of Cranial Reconstruction Using Multipurpose Silicone

In forensic medicine, gestational age of fetal remains is a crucial information in several contests, but the classic methods are inadequate when early gestational age needs to be assessed. In the author's experience, the measurement of the biparietal diameter provides more accurate information for this purpose. The status of the fetal head is therefore critical. This work describes an easy technique that allows to reconstruct the cranial volume of the fetus using multipurpose silicone given both the flexibility of the fetal head structure and the inorganic nature of the silicone itself. In conclusion, the determination of the biparietal diameter achieved through the above‐described technique permitted a more accurate estimation of the dating of pregnancy in judicial cases where the fetal remains were incomplete and disrupted.     

Rising start-up costs of voting: political inequality among first-time voters

Abstract

Research on voting behaviour stresses that whether citizens become habitual voters depends on the very first elections in their adult life. This article focuses on the increasing participation gap of first-time voters with low and high levels of resources. Looking first at 14 European countries and second at long-term dynamics in Germany, the turnout rate of first-time and older voters over time is compared. It is shown that the turnout gap has increased substantially since the 1980s. In contrast, educational differences in electoral turnout among older citizens are still comparatively small. It is argued and shown that the turnout gap among the young is due to rising ‘start-up’ costs of voting, which affect mainly those who are resource poor.     

Prisoners with psychosis in England and Wales: diversion to psychiatric inpatient services?

The prevalence of psychosis among prisoners in England and Wales is ten times that in the household population and UK government policy is that prisoners should receive equivalent care to those in the community. This study investigated the implications of policy to divert more from the criminal justice system for psychiatric treatment. Psychotic prisoners were compared with psychotic persons in households and with other prisoners in two surveys of psychiatric morbidity in representative samples of the UK population. Psychotic prisoners were younger, more from ethnic minorities, with comorbid anxiety, substance misuse, ASPD, and childhood behavioural problems compared to psychotic persons in households. Less than a third had received previous inpatient treatment. Psychotic prisoners had similar criminal histories and higher psychopathy scores than non-psychopathic prisoners. Diversion is unfeasible without improved screening for psychosis and increasing bed numbers at higher levels of security to accommodate more patients who would pose high risk to the public. Future research should investigate why UK psychiatric services fail to identify psychotic prisoners and provide aftercare.     

Bayesian networks and the value of the evidence for the forensic two-trace transfer problem*

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.     

Arsenic Poisoning Caused by Intentional Contamination of Coffee at a Church Gathering—An Epidemiological Approach to a Forensic Investigation

Abstract: An outbreak of apparent food‐borne illness following a church gathering was promptly reported to the Maine Bureau of Health. Gastrointestinal symptoms among church attendees were initially attributed to consumption of leftover sandwiches that had been served the previous day. However, a rapid epidemiological and laboratory assessment revealed the etiology of illness, including the death of an elderly gentleman, was not food‐borne in origin. A criminal investigation determined that deliberate arsenic contamination of the brewed coffee by one of the church members was the source of the outbreak. Public health officials and criminal investigators must be aware that intentional biologic aggression can initially present as typical unintentional disease outbreaks. Practitioners must also consider the need to properly maintain and preserve potential forensic evidence. This case demonstrates the key role public health practitioners may play in criminal investigations.     

Forecasting the number of social security retirees: Improving forecasts for better policy making

There is evidence that past and current forecasts by the Social Security Administration (SSA) substantially underestimate future U.S. Populations of age 65 and older. The policy significance of this can be seen in the forecasts by other researchers that predict outlays of $30 to $50 billion more for Social Security retirees in the year 2000 than projected by the SSA. Clearly, we need an improved 15-to 20-year forecast of the aged—one that combines the use of time-series forecasting methods and expert opinions on future mortality trends. This forecast would supplement SSA's current long-term (75-year) actuarial projections and provide policy makers with improved information for monitoring Social Security and other programs for the aged. This article recommends that independent advisory groups be established to provide SSA with advice to support development of this shorter-term forecast.